UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.