Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Monica Palmer
Monica Palmer

A passionate gamer and strategy expert with years of experience in competitive gaming and content creation.